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The agency also warned the government of overshooting the fiscal deficit target at 4.8 per cent due to poor revenue growth and pegged it at 5.2 per cent this fiscal.
Ahead of the Union Budget for 2023-24, Budget makers have welcomed the global consensus view that India will remain one of the bright spots in calendar year 2023. But there is some alarm over the grim global situation and how that might impact the Centre's projections and assessments for next financial year. The big global headwinds include a deep and sustained recession in the West, including India's biggest trading partners in North America and Europe, continuing volatility in commodity markets, and renewed Covid-19 fears, as lifting of strict curbs by China could potentially lead to a massive spread again.
Structural reforms, pro-people programmes and employment opportunities helped the economy get new vigour, the finance minister said. After contracting by 5.8 per cent in 2020-21, the economy recorded a growth of 9.1 per cent in 2021-22.
'Q1 is going to bear the brunt of the second wave, exposing full-year GDP forecasts to downward revisions, unless phase-3 of vaccination is executed quickly.'
The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council said on Monday that India's GDP growth will slow down to 8.2 per cent in the current fiscal. Its earlier growth projection was at 9 per cent.
"Growth is expected to moderate gradually in China... pick up in India, and remain broadly stable in the Asean-5 region."
Hopes of revival and earnings growth in 2020, surprise tax cuts, and robust foreign flows - thanks to easy global monetary policies - are a few reasons why the markets have managed to digest the low GDP footprint. Select bluechips such as Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, and ICICI Bank have gained sharply this year. On the other hand, YES Bank, Zee Entertainment, and Indiabulls Housing have seen a sharp fall.
The S&P BSE Sensex plunged 461 points to end at 25,603.
According to the global financial services major, after the BJP's 'historic' election victory on May 16, hope for structural reforms has gone up.
Stating that growth impulses and the fast-moving indicators are strong, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday exuded confidence of the economy clipping at the projected 9.5 per cent this fiscal. Giving all the credit for the faster-than-expected recovery of the economy to the government, Das said the central bank has only been supporting the government in reviving the economy ravaged by the pandemic. Citing a slew of measures the government has taken since the pandemic struck in March 2020, the governor specifically mentioned tax cuts on fuels, tax resolution for the telecom sector, annulling of the retro tax legislation, sale of Air India, plans to sell some of the public sector banks and PLI scheme as the major reforms and growth-drivers bearing fruits now.
Analysts welcomed the better Q2 GDP readings of 4.8 per cent, which came in above their expectations, but warned that the planned expenditure cuts by the government will be the key thing to watch out going forward.
'Growth would have to be 7% in the October-March period, if the year as a whole is to clock 6%.' 'Who would bet on that when, in the world of real numbers, both exports and imports have continued to fall, car sales have continued to slump, and the industrial production index shows yet again a drop in output?', asks T N Ninan.
The global rating agency expects the economy to pick up in the next two financial years.
The GDP growth is estimated to come at the "deceptively high" level of 20 per cent for the April-June 2021 quarter but is far below the same in the pre-COVID times, rating agency Icra said on Wednesday. Icra said the low base of the last year, when the GDP had contracted by close to 24 per cent, "conceals" the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 infections. Economic activity is boosted by robust government capital expenditure, merchandise exports and demand from the farm sector, it said, estimating the GDP to grow by 20 per cent and the gross value added (GVA) will register a growth of 17 per cent for the June quarter.
Expenditure cuts necessitated by slowing revenue growth, weak industrial activity worrisome portents
The long-term growth perspective or potential for India is one of the highest in the Asia Pacific region.
Buoyed by the 'feel good factor' in the economy, investment banking firm DSP Merrill Lynch on wednesday raised India's GDP forecast for 2003-04 to 7.3 per cent from the earlier prediction of 6.7 per cent.
Indian economic growth slowed down to 6.7 per cent in 2008-09 from 9 per cent in the previous three years, as an aftermath of the global financial crisis.
Enthused by a good monsoon, the government on Wednesday said the economy would grow by over 6.0 per cent and could even log near 8.0 per cent growth
Questioning the methodology of CSO in computing economic growth projections, the Planning Commission today said it has ignored the rising growth trend while working out estimates for 2012-13.
But lower growth numbers in the quarters to come may not mean renewed weakness in the economy at the ground level, says Pranjul Bhandari.
Indian economy is likely to expand in the range of 5.4 to 5.9 per cent this fiscal, as per government estimates.
The finance minister said figures for second quarter economic growth are yet to come, but industry has started picking up. The Indian economy grew by 6.1 per cent in the first quarter. On inflation, Mukherjee said the government has taken steps to ensure that the adverse impact of inflationary pressures is reduced by strengthening supply management.
The wait for India to become a $5-trillion economic powerhouse by 2024-25 (FY25) is going to take longer than what the finance ministry had originally intended, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The vision will instead be achieved in 2028-29 (FY29), reveals the IMF data, illustrating a four-year delay. Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran had in February said India would become a $5-trillion economy by 2025-26 or the following year, on the back of 8-9 per cent sustained growth rate in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, the IMF data conveys that the economy will be $4.92 trillion in FY28, clearly alluding to the fact that the target will be realised in FY29.
Credit rating agency ICRA disputed the official forecast of a lower 4.4 per cent growth in GDP, and said all indications in reality are that the economy was slated to grow by 5.4-5.5 per cent this fiscal.
There are various projections about India's growth.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
Fitch Ratings director Thomas Rookmaaker said India's debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to rise to 76 per cent from 70 per cent currently due to wider fiscal deficit and low economic growth.
Reserve Bank will have to constantly re-assess the "dynamic and fast changing situation" and tailor its actions accordingly, Governor Shaktikanta Das said during the recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which decided to maintain status quo on key interest rate. According to the minutes of the six-member MPC meet released by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday, the five other members had also expressed a similar opinion amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict's impact on the global and domestic economies. MPC, which held its meeting from April 6-8, unanimously decided to keep the borrowing costs unchanged at a record low for the 11th time in a row in a bid to continue supporting economic growth despite inflation edging higher in the aftermath of Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Fitch Ratings on Monday cautioned that the Indian government has little fiscal headroom at its disposal to respond to possible shocks to growth given the country's lowest investment grade credit rating with a negative outlook. "India's public debt/GDP ratio, at about 87 per cent in FY21, is well above the median of around 60% for 'BBB' rated sovereigns. "We revised the Outlook on India's rating to Negative, from Stable, in June 2020, partly owing to our assumptions about the impact of the pandemic on public finance metrics. "The government has little fiscal headroom at its current rating level to respond to possible shocks to growth," it said in a report.
"We forecast 7.3 per cent GDP growth (current financial year). We expect fundamentals to improve next year, propelling a recovery in H2 FY10," Lehman Brothers said in a report. For the first quarter ended June 2008, the economy registered a growth of 7.9 per cent against 9.2 per cent in the same period last year.
India's budget for the fiscal beginning April focuses on giving a boost to the ongoing economic recovery through a sharp increase in capex spending but is short on major growth-enhancing structural reform announcements, Fitch Ratings said Wednesday. The deficit targets present in the Union budget 2022-23 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday "are a bit higher than our forecasts when we affirmed India's 'BBB'/Negative sovereign rating in November," said Jeremy Zook, director and primary sovereign analyst for India, Fitch Ratings. While it was widely expected that the fiscal deficit will be lower than the targeted 6.8 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2022, Sitharaman put the number at 6.9 per cent.
In view of India's faster industrial growth and improved business confidence, UK-based Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) on Tuesday revised upwards its forecast for the country's economic growth to 8.1 per cent for the current fiscal.
Rajan also said the outlook for agriculture is subdued, in view of both rabi and kharif prospects being hit by monsoon vagaries.
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
The economy is likely to log in a tepid 6 per cent growth next fiscal, in line with the consensus estimates, rating agency Crisil said on Thursday. The agency also sees the economy averaging a growth rate of 6.8 per cent over the next five fiscals. Crisil further said it expects the corporate revenue to log in double-digit rise again next fiscal.
Business activity has fallen by a fourth of the pre-COVID levels due to lockdowns imposed by states to contain the spread of the second wave of COVID-19, Japanese brokerage Nomura said on Tuesday. However, it said the falling activity levels will have a muted economic impact and maintained its growth estimates for the year, saying the lockdowns present "downside risks". As of April 25, the Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) registered its steepest weekly fall in over a year of 8.5 percentage points to 75.9, which is 24 percentage points below pre-pandemic normal, the brokerage said in a statement.
The RBI has set up a panel to review ATM charges, and fees levied by banks.
The agriculture sector has witnessed feeble growth on account of drought for two successive years
Of the seven surveys presented under Modi govt, predictions of three were quite close to the actual GDP growth rate, one saw the base year change in between, but the last three were way off the mark.
