The S&P BSE Sensex plunged 461 points to end at 25,603.
The GDP growth is estimated to come at the "deceptively high" level of 20 per cent for the April-June 2021 quarter but is far below the same in the pre-COVID times, rating agency Icra said on Wednesday. Icra said the low base of the last year, when the GDP had contracted by close to 24 per cent, "conceals" the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 infections. Economic activity is boosted by robust government capital expenditure, merchandise exports and demand from the farm sector, it said, estimating the GDP to grow by 20 per cent and the gross value added (GVA) will register a growth of 17 per cent for the June quarter.
According to the global financial services major, after the BJP's 'historic' election victory on May 16, hope for structural reforms has gone up.
'Growth would have to be 7% in the October-March period, if the year as a whole is to clock 6%.' 'Who would bet on that when, in the world of real numbers, both exports and imports have continued to fall, car sales have continued to slump, and the industrial production index shows yet again a drop in output?', asks T N Ninan.
Analysts welcomed the better Q2 GDP readings of 4.8 per cent, which came in above their expectations, but warned that the planned expenditure cuts by the government will be the key thing to watch out going forward.
The global rating agency expects the economy to pick up in the next two financial years.
Buoyed by the 'feel good factor' in the economy, investment banking firm DSP Merrill Lynch on wednesday raised India's GDP forecast for 2003-04 to 7.3 per cent from the earlier prediction of 6.7 per cent.
The long-term growth perspective or potential for India is one of the highest in the Asia Pacific region.
Expenditure cuts necessitated by slowing revenue growth, weak industrial activity worrisome portents
The wait for India to become a $5-trillion economic powerhouse by 2024-25 (FY25) is going to take longer than what the finance ministry had originally intended, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The vision will instead be achieved in 2028-29 (FY29), reveals the IMF data, illustrating a four-year delay. Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran had in February said India would become a $5-trillion economy by 2025-26 or the following year, on the back of 8-9 per cent sustained growth rate in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, the IMF data conveys that the economy will be $4.92 trillion in FY28, clearly alluding to the fact that the target will be realised in FY29.
Indian economic growth slowed down to 6.7 per cent in 2008-09 from 9 per cent in the previous three years, as an aftermath of the global financial crisis.
Questioning the methodology of CSO in computing economic growth projections, the Planning Commission today said it has ignored the rising growth trend while working out estimates for 2012-13.
But lower growth numbers in the quarters to come may not mean renewed weakness in the economy at the ground level, says Pranjul Bhandari.
Enthused by a good monsoon, the government on Wednesday said the economy would grow by over 6.0 per cent and could even log near 8.0 per cent growth
Indian economy is likely to expand in the range of 5.4 to 5.9 per cent this fiscal, as per government estimates.
Reserve Bank will have to constantly re-assess the "dynamic and fast changing situation" and tailor its actions accordingly, Governor Shaktikanta Das said during the recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which decided to maintain status quo on key interest rate. According to the minutes of the six-member MPC meet released by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday, the five other members had also expressed a similar opinion amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict's impact on the global and domestic economies. MPC, which held its meeting from April 6-8, unanimously decided to keep the borrowing costs unchanged at a record low for the 11th time in a row in a bid to continue supporting economic growth despite inflation edging higher in the aftermath of Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Fitch Ratings on Monday cautioned that the Indian government has little fiscal headroom at its disposal to respond to possible shocks to growth given the country's lowest investment grade credit rating with a negative outlook. "India's public debt/GDP ratio, at about 87 per cent in FY21, is well above the median of around 60% for 'BBB' rated sovereigns. "We revised the Outlook on India's rating to Negative, from Stable, in June 2020, partly owing to our assumptions about the impact of the pandemic on public finance metrics. "The government has little fiscal headroom at its current rating level to respond to possible shocks to growth," it said in a report.
The finance minister said figures for second quarter economic growth are yet to come, but industry has started picking up. The Indian economy grew by 6.1 per cent in the first quarter. On inflation, Mukherjee said the government has taken steps to ensure that the adverse impact of inflationary pressures is reduced by strengthening supply management.
India's services sector growth recorded another month of robust expansion in July, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in June, largely supported by robust demand conditions and investment in technology, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index was at 60.3 in July, down only fractionally from 60.5 in June. In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Fitch Ratings director Thomas Rookmaaker said India's debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to rise to 76 per cent from 70 per cent currently due to wider fiscal deficit and low economic growth.
Credit rating agency ICRA disputed the official forecast of a lower 4.4 per cent growth in GDP, and said all indications in reality are that the economy was slated to grow by 5.4-5.5 per cent this fiscal.
India's budget for the fiscal beginning April focuses on giving a boost to the ongoing economic recovery through a sharp increase in capex spending but is short on major growth-enhancing structural reform announcements, Fitch Ratings said Wednesday. The deficit targets present in the Union budget 2022-23 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday "are a bit higher than our forecasts when we affirmed India's 'BBB'/Negative sovereign rating in November," said Jeremy Zook, director and primary sovereign analyst for India, Fitch Ratings. While it was widely expected that the fiscal deficit will be lower than the targeted 6.8 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2022, Sitharaman put the number at 6.9 per cent.
The economy is likely to log in a tepid 6 per cent growth next fiscal, in line with the consensus estimates, rating agency Crisil said on Thursday. The agency also sees the economy averaging a growth rate of 6.8 per cent over the next five fiscals. Crisil further said it expects the corporate revenue to log in double-digit rise again next fiscal.
There are various projections about India's growth.
"We forecast 7.3 per cent GDP growth (current financial year). We expect fundamentals to improve next year, propelling a recovery in H2 FY10," Lehman Brothers said in a report. For the first quarter ended June 2008, the economy registered a growth of 7.9 per cent against 9.2 per cent in the same period last year.
In view of India's faster industrial growth and improved business confidence, UK-based Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) on Tuesday revised upwards its forecast for the country's economic growth to 8.1 per cent for the current fiscal.
Rajan also said the outlook for agriculture is subdued, in view of both rabi and kharif prospects being hit by monsoon vagaries.
Business activity has fallen by a fourth of the pre-COVID levels due to lockdowns imposed by states to contain the spread of the second wave of COVID-19, Japanese brokerage Nomura said on Tuesday. However, it said the falling activity levels will have a muted economic impact and maintained its growth estimates for the year, saying the lockdowns present "downside risks". As of April 25, the Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) registered its steepest weekly fall in over a year of 8.5 percentage points to 75.9, which is 24 percentage points below pre-pandemic normal, the brokerage said in a statement.
Benchmark indices--Sensex and Nifty--were 0.7-0.8 per cent higher from the Saturday closing. Among the widely-tracked Nifty 50 stocks, 39 advanced and the rest 11 declined at the opening bell. Among the individual stocks, Cipla, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma, Power Grid Corp, and Bharti Airtel were the top five gainers, while Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, Britania, HDFC Bank, and BPCL the losers, NSE data showed. On Monday, Indian stock exchanges were closed for trading on the occasion of Pran Pratistha of Ram Temple in Ayodhya.
The RBI has set up a panel to review ATM charges, and fees levied by banks.
Of the seven surveys presented under Modi govt, predictions of three were quite close to the actual GDP growth rate, one saw the base year change in between, but the last three were way off the mark.
With this subdued forecast, India is likely to record its worst growth performance since the 1991 liberalisation. However, it is among the only two major economies, which will register a positive growth rate in 2020. The other being China, for which the IMF has projected a growth rate of 1.2 per cent.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the status quo on policy rates for the fourth consecutive time in its October 4-6 review meeting. The incremental information available since its last meeting in August suggests that growth and inflation prints for the second quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24) will exceed the committee's projections. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is expected to moderate in the second half (H2) of FY24.
The agriculture sector has witnessed feeble growth on account of drought for two successive years
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
Very often, 'sentiment' drives prices well beyond what is warranted and it is hard to forecast market sentiment, explains Debashis Basu.
'Given the 50 per cent or thereabouts increase in borrowing that has been announced, it is a reasonable estimate to say that at this time, an increase of 1.7-1.8 per cent on the 3.5 per cent budgeted fiscal deficit target is being anticipated,' Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said on Friday.
IMF said in 2017, India is likely to grow at the rate of 7.2 per cent instead of the earlier projected 7.6 per cent.
It is all the more remarkable that this acceleration took place in a period when the dollar was mostly appreciating against other currencies. The fact that imports declined by over 7 per cent meant that the external sector contributed hugely to the acceleration in the growth rate.
Current Account Deficit is projected at 1.2 per cent and 1 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 and 2015-16.
